Bitcoin Analysis, March 4
First of all, as those who follow me will know, on December 18, 2024, when Bitcoin was at the 104k level, I said there were 3 scenarios for Bitcoin. The first scenario was a strong bull run, reaching 130k within 3 months. The second scenario was an immediate pullback, finding support around 85k, then rising again to 115k within 6 months. The last scenario was a bear run, where Bitcoin lost the 80k support and fell to 60k within 6 months.
Personally, I considered the first scenario too positive and stated on many social media platforms that I saw the second scenario as highly probable. And then, the second scenario almost exactly happened.
After this scenario materialized, I made another post on May 15, 2025, stating that Bitcoin was technically in a seasonal cycle. In that analysis, I said that the peak for Bitcoin would come on October 13th, and that after this peak, the third scenario I mentioned in the previous analysis would occur. This scenario also came true.
In this article, I will share in detail when the bottom will come and what levels I expect, entirely based on my own interpretations. I am not a fortune teller, and what I say is not investment advice. Make your own investment decisions.
In the May analysis, I specifically pointed out the HP filter, stating that this filter plays a critical role. Again, it is necessary to analyze the situation by first looking at this filter.
Bitcoin has been continuing its rise since 2014, using the HP filter as support. Bitcoin last tested this support in 2023, falling below it but recovering around it. Currently, I see the support in the 60-48k range. This suggests that Bitcoin still has a chance to fall to this range in the coming months, and at worst, it will rebound from this range or slightly below it.
So, what about price action? The 70-66k range where Bitcoin is currently located is a region with significant volume. Additionally, it’s a region where the HP filter has almost been passed. Therefore, I think Bitcoin could have a good time around this level and find support. As I said, a monthly close below this level would bring us to another support level at 43k.
So, when can we be sure the reversal has arrived? For this, I want to go back to the post from May 2024. Looking at the seasonality, I see that the return date is October 2026. While this date doesn’t definitively state that the return will happen, it’s more of a date when we should start preparing for the return and begin making our analyses more “bull-biased”.
Therefore, while the important support zones are currently 70k and in a pessimistic scenario 43k, I think Bitcoin will remain somewhat sideways.
Of course, this article doesn’t contain a very detailed analysis; it’s more of a quick analysis. If you want to purchase my weekly and monthly analyses in PDF format, which are 10-20 pages long and cover stocks, cryptocurrencies and ETF’s, you can contact me or order directly from Upwork.